PDF中截取的与中文对照的部分
(page 3)
Had China been prosperous and unified throughout the twentieth century, we would have had
European War II rather than World War II and World War I would have been quite
different. China would have been able to deter or defeat Japanese aggression. The cost
of those conflicts to the U.S. would have been radically smaller because Pearl Harbor and
much else would not have happened. We and the world, not to speak of a billion Chinese
citizens, have paid a horrible price, over more than a century, for China’s weakness. The
world needs a healthy China
(page 9)
Chinese demand provided the stimulus that lifted Japan out of recession. It
is difficult to overstate the risk the world economy faced from the Japanese situation,
where mountainous debt created the risk of a domino-like collapse inside Japan and
subsequent rippling collapses around the world. That risk seems to have passed, helped
by a critical margin of stimulus from China.
(page 9)
China’s globalization has had numerous impacts on the U.S. Most obviously, China has
become a vast market for U.S. goods. Arguments that this is a mythic “China Dream”
have proved false. Coca Cola has long since surpassed the fabled goal of selling a billion
Cokes. General Motors, once ridiculed by the China Dream theory, sells many Buicks in
China, and, despite a current cyclical pause, profits from China have been a critical
margin for GM during a difficult time. We gain from billions of dollars of profits
remitted back to our country and from the improved health of our most successful
companies as they compete against other foreign companies.
Lower prices for basic goods have contributed significantly to American standards of
living, particularly for our less prosperous citizens. While we do not yet have definitive
studies, indications are that lower-income Americans achieve improvements in their
(page 10)
standards of living of perhaps 5% to 10% as a result of being able to buy lower-priced
imports from China. That impact is undoubtedly expanded by the fact that competition
from China drives other countries to produce less expensive goods for our consumption.
(page 11)
The irrationalities of the Chinese financial system mean that in key sectors like steel
China builds too many factories, and props up too many moribund companies, causing
massive overcapacity. In recent years Chinese financial vagaries have led to excessive
construction and huge demand for steel, aluminum, cement and others.
(page 11)
China making steel today looks like Japan buying Rockefeller Center two decades ago; if you
project their excesses indefinitely into the future, first the Japanese and now the Chinese
look as if they are about to take over everything in the world. But when you look at their
underlying finances, you see a black hole. The Japanese spent the 1990s in their black
hole and are still trying to climb out. China will feel the pain of its recent spree for many
years.
(page 13)
In the medium term China faces daunting challenges. Its banks are the worst in the world
that we know about. In each generation a population about the size of the United States
will move from China’s countryside to its cities. Each year 12-13 million new workers
join the work force. The impact of productivity on employment in manufacturing is
much more severe than in our country. All these people need jobs. For a considerable
period China’s high growth can be sustained, but only through heroic reform measures by
China’s leaders. If somehow China powers through these problems, by 2020 its aging
population will have the worst ratio of workers to non-workers of any population in the
world, including Japan’s. That is to say, without some miraculous new policies the
Chinese economy may well hit a wall in that period. In 2020, they will still be a very
poor country by our standards. Even if their success continues until then, they will not be
taking over the world.
